Prediction market platforms processed over $21 billion in monthly trading volume by January 2026, according to TRM Labs, up from $1.2 billion at the start of 2025. Total sector volume exceeded $50 billion for the full year 2025, per HTX Insights. Two platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, control over 97.5% of the global prediction market share.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets reached $21 billion in monthly volume by January 2026, with 840,000 unique monthly wallets, according to TRM Labs.
- Polymarket recorded $10.57 billion in monthly trading volume in March 2026, its first time crossing the $10 billion mark, per Bloomberg.
- Kalshi raised over $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in March 2026, making it the highest-valued prediction market platform.
- DraftKings launched its CFTC-regulated Predictions app across 38 states in December 2025, partnering with CME Group at launch.
- Robinhood generated roughly $25 million in Q3 revenue from prediction market activity through its Kalshi partnership.
- Myriad Markets surpassed $100 million in cumulative volume with over 400,000 active traders, becoming the first wallet-native prediction market through Trust Wallet.
- BitGo and Susquehanna Crypto launched institutional OTC access to prediction markets in March 2026, targeting hedge funds and family offices.
Editor’s Choice
- Kalshi valuation surged from $2 billion (June 2025) to $22 billion (March 2026), a 10x increase in nine months.
- Mid-frequency traders (11 to 1,000 fills) account for 44.7% of all prediction market trades, per TRM Labs.
- Market makers with over 10,000 fills represent 35.2% of trading activity on prediction platforms.
- Polymarket is seeking $400 million in new funding at a $15 billion valuation after Intercontinental Exchange took a $1 billion stake.
- Hyperliquid announced HIP-4 outcome trading in February 2026, targeting unified spot, perps, and predictions on a single execution layer.
How We Ranked These Prediction Market Platforms
- Trading volume and liquidity depth
- Category coverage (politics, sports, crypto, economics, culture)
- Fee model (taker fees, maker rebates, settlement fees)
- Regulatory status (CFTC designation, state-level restrictions)
- US availability
- Settlement mechanism (CFTC-regulated vs crypto escrow)
- KYC requirements
Polymarket
Polymarket, the largest crypto-native prediction market, recorded $10.57 billion in monthly trading volume in March 2026, according to Bloomberg. The platform is seeking $400 million in new funding at a $15 billion valuation, up from $9 billion after Intercontinental Exchange’s $1 billion stake.
- Taker fees range from 0.75% (sports) to 1.80% (crypto), with geopolitics markets remaining fee-free and makers paying 0%, per Polymarket documentation.
- A US-regulated exchange charges a flat 0.30% taker fee with a 0.20% maker rebate.
- KYC is required for US users on the regulated exchange. The global platform has lighter verification.
Strengths: Deepest liquidity on crypto-native markets, diverse category coverage, zero maker fees.
Kalshi
Kalshi, the first CFTC-designated contract market for event contracts, raised more than $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in March 2026, led by Coatue Management. The platform lists over 350,000 active markets across sports, politics, economics, and crypto.
- Full US KYC required. Available in all 50 states, though Nevada and Washington have active lawsuits challenging certain contract types.
- Settlement is centralized through CFTC-regulated clearing.
- Valuation grew from $2 billion (June 2025) to $5 billion (October 2025) to $22 billion (March 2026).
By the numbers: According to TRM Labs, prediction market monthly volume reached $21 billion by January 2026, with mid-frequency traders (11 to 1,000 fills) accounting for 44.7% of all trades. Market makers with over 10,000 fills represent 35.2% of trading activity.
DraftKings Predictions
DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) launched its standalone Predictions app on December 19, 2025, operating as a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker and NFA member across 38 states, per its investor relations announcement. Sports event contracts are available in states including California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, with the platform connecting to CME Group at launch.
- Categories: sports and finance initially, with entertainment and culture planned.
- DraftKings has planned the integration of Railbird Exchange to expand available markets and gain exchange economics over time.
- KYC required, standard DraftKings account verification.
- Settlement through CME Group’s regulated clearing infrastructure.
Strengths: Existing user base of millions, regulated clearing through CME, strong brand recognition in sports.
Weaknesses: Limited to sports and finance at launch, no crypto-native markets, and exchange economics are still developing.
Robinhood Prediction Markets
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) generated roughly $25 million in Q3 revenue from prediction market activity, according to its newsroom, with all contracts flowing through KalshiEX. The company acquired MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed derivatives clearing organization, through a joint venture with Susquehanna in January 2026.
- Full KYC through the existing Robinhood account. Available across the US.
- Settlement through KalshiEX (CFTC-regulated).
Strengths: Seamless integration into a brokerage used by millions, zero additional onboarding, and growing revenue contribution.
Weaknesses: Fully dependent on Kalshi for market creation and liquidity currently, limited to Kalshi’s contract offerings.
Augur
Augur, launched in 2015 on Ethereum, pioneered decentralized prediction markets with the REP token oracle.
- Fully permissionless and decentralized. No KYC required.
- REP token holders stake to resolve market outcomes, creating an economic incentive for accurate reporting.
- No platform-level trading fees, though users pay Ethereum gas costs.
- Available globally, no geographic restrictions.
Strengths: Fully decentralized, censorship-resistant, no KYC, pioneering protocol design.
Weaknesses: Low liquidity and trading activity, high Ethereum gas costs, and complex user experience.
Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets, which describes itself as the world’s largest social prediction market, achieves forecasts within 4 percentage points of true probability on average, according to its platform data. The platform outperformed all other prediction market platforms during the 2022 US midterm elections and matched FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting accuracy.
- Uses Mana (play money) rather than real currency. Users start with 1,000 Mana free.
- USDC prize drawings offer real cryptocurrency winnings for top forecasters.
- Anyone can create a market on any topic, driving category breadth across politics, technology, sports, AI, and culture.
- No KYC, no geographic restrictions, no financial risk.
Strengths: Zero financial risk, user-generated markets covering every topic, strong calibration track record, global access.
Weaknesses: Play-money limits serious trader engagement, no real financial returns from trading (only prize drawings).
Myriad Markets
Myriad Markets surpassed $100 million in cumulative trading volume with more than 400,000 active traders executing over 6.3 million trades, per its press release. In December 2025, Myriad became the first prediction market to launch in-wallet predictions through Trust Wallet integration.
- Operates on BNB Chain with lower transaction costs than Ethereum-based alternatives.
- Categories: politics, economics, sports, social trends.
- Trust Wallet statistics show the platform’s large user base can access predictions in-app.
Strengths: Wallet-native distribution through Trust Wallet, low BNB Chain fees, rapidly growing user base.
Weaknesses: Smaller volume than Polymarket or Kalshi, the BNB Chain ecosystem is narrower than Ethereum or Solana, newer platform with less track record.
Hedgehog Markets
Hedgehog Markets, built on Solana, raised $3.5 million in seed funding and pioneered an Uniswap-inspired pooled liquidity model for prediction markets, according to its funding announcement.
- AMM-style trading provides constant liquidity and instant settlement on Solana.
- Market types include classic predictions, pooled parlays, and peer-to-peer markets.
- No KYC required. Available globally.
- Developing its own optimistic oracle on Solana for third-party market resolution.
Key finding: According to Bloomberg, Kalshi’s valuation grew from $2 billion in June 2025 to $22 billion by March 2026, a 10x increase in nine months driven by over $1 billion in new funding led by Coatue Management.
Strengths: No-loss prediction model, Solana speed, low fees, and innovative pooled liquidity.
Weaknesses: Early-stage with limited trading volume, no-loss model limits potential returns, and small market selection.
Hyperliquid (HIP-4)
Hyperliquid announced HIP-4 outcome trading on February 2, 2026, introducing fully collateralized binary contracts that settle between 0 and 1, according to platform documentation. If outcome trading gains traction, Hyperliquid would become the only platform offering spot trading, perpetual futures, and prediction markets natively on a single execution layer.
- HIP-4 reached testnet in March 2026. Mainnet launch is expected later this year.
- No KYC on the decentralized platform. Fee structure for outcome contracts not yet finalized.
Strengths: Unified spot, perps, and predictions on one chain, existing liquidity from Hyperliquid’s derivatives volume, and fast settlement.
Weaknesses: Not yet on mainnet, untested in production, fee model unclear, and no regulatory status.
Zeitgeist
Zeitgeist is a dedicated L1 blockchain for prediction markets on Polkadot.
- ZTG token powers staking and protocol economics.
- Always-liquid market design with multiple AMM types.
- No KYC. Available globally through the Polkadot parachain.
Strengths: Dedicated prediction market chain, futarchy governance innovation, developer SDK for custom market creation.
Weaknesses: Low liquidity, small user base tied to the Polkadot ecosystem, limited category breadth.
Head-to-Head Comparison Table
| Platform | Blockchain | Monthly Volume | Fee Model | KYC | US Available | Settlement | Categories |
| Polymarket | Polygon | $10.57B (Mar 2026) | 0.75%-1.80% taker; 0% maker | US: yes; Global: light | Yes (regulated exchange) | Crypto escrow (UMA Oracle) | Politics, sports, crypto, culture, economics |
| Kalshi | Centralized | Multi-billion (est.) | Max $0.02/contract | Full | Yes (50 states) | CFTC-regulated clearing | Sports, politics, economics, crypto |
| DraftKings | Centralized | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Full | Yes (38 states) | CME Group clearing | Sports, finance |
| Robinhood | Centralized (via Kalshi) | Not disclosed | Via Kalshi fee schedule | Full | Yes (nationwide) | KalshiEX (CFTC) | Via Kalshi markets |
| Augur | Ethereum | Low | No platform fee (gas only) | None | Yes (permissionless) | Decentralized (REP oracle) | Permissionless |
| Manifold | Off-chain | N/A (play money) | Free | None | Yes (global) | Centralized (play money) | User-generated (all) |
| Myriad | BNB Chain | $100M+ cumulative | Low | Varies | Global | On-chain | Politics, economics, sports |
| Hedgehog | Solana | Low | Low | None | Yes (permissionless) | AMM + oracle | Sports, events |
| Hyperliquid | Hyperliquid L1 | Testnet only | TBD | None | Permissionless | On-chain (HIP-4) | TBD |
| Zeitgeist | Polkadot | Low | Low | None | Yes (permissionless) | On-chain (ZTG oracle) | Events, governance |
Source: TRM Labs, Bloomberg, DraftKings IR, Robinhood Newsroom, Platform Documentation
Verdict by Use Case
- Best for US-regulated trading: Kalshi provides the broadest legal coverage as the first CFTC-designated contract market.
- Best for global crypto-native trading: Polymarket leads in volume and category diversity. Its zero maker fees suit traders comfortable with decentralized finance protocols.
- Best for sports prediction trading: DraftKings Predictions combines CME Group clearing and 38-state availability. Retail investors face zero onboarding friction.
- Best for learning and forecasting practice: Manifold Markets offers zero financial risk with real forecasting calibration through play money.
- Best for decentralized trading: Augur for censorship resistance; Hedgehog for AMM liquidity on Solana.
- Best for institutional access: BitGo and Susquehanna Crypto provide OTC access using existing crypto collateral.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Prediction market platforms are exchanges where users trade contracts tied to real-world event outcomes. Contract prices between $0 and $1 reflect the market’s implied probability. Traders profit by buying contracts that settle at $1 when the predicted event occurs.
Polymarket recorded $10.57 billion in monthly trading volume in March 2026, according to Bloomberg. Kalshi holds the highest valuation at $22 billion with over 350,000 active markets.
CFTC-designated contract markets are legal. Kalshi, DraftKings, and Robinhood operate under CFTC oversight, though some states have filed lawsuits challenging certain contract types.
Fee structures vary significantly. Polymarket charges taker fees ranging from 0.75% to 1.80% by category, with makers paying 0%. Kalshi charges up to $0.02 per contract. Augur has no platform fees. Manifold is free.
Centralized platforms use CFTC-regulated exchanges with KYC requirements. Decentralized platforms use smart contracts, requiring users to manage crypto wallets without submitting identity documents.
BitGo and Susquehanna Crypto launched the first dedicated institutional OTC access to prediction markets in March 2026, according to BusinessWire. This allows hedge funds and family offices to trade using existing crypto collateral.
Conclusion
Prediction market platforms have grown from $1.2 billion to over $21 billion in monthly volume within a single year, per TRM Labs. The sector processed more than $50 billion in total volume during 2025 alone. Polymarket leads global crypto-native trading while Kalshi dominates US-regulated markets. Across our coverage of crypto exchange data and global adoption trends, prediction markets represent the fastest-growing product category in crypto this year.
