Corporate Bond Default Statistics 2026: Rates, Ratings and Risks

The latest corporate bond default statistics from S&P Global Ratings show the year-to-date total of global corporate defaults at 82 as of Oct. 5, 2026, compared with 89 at the same point last year. The slower count has not pulled default rates down much. Moody’s Ratings reports that the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate held steady at 4.4% at the end of June, against a long-term average of 4.2%.

S&P’s count and Moody’s rate cover different issuer pools, and the mix of default types keeps shifting between distressed exchanges and missed payments. The sections below track the 2026 tally, default rates by agency and credit rating since 1981, forecasts to mid-2027, and a US corporate bond market that SIFMA puts at $12.1 trillion outstanding as of 2Q26.

Key Takeaways

• Distressed exchanges rose to their highest level since 2008, accounting for 59.3% of global corporate defaults in 2024.
• In S&P’s long-run data, the average one-year default rate for 1981-2024 is 0.08% for investment grade and 3.54% for speculative grade.
• Moody’s expects the global loan-only default rate to decline to 2.5% in June 2027, compared with 1.4% for the global bond-only default rate.
• Speculative-grade bond spreads reached a new historical low of 205 basis points on July 22, while S&P’s US speculative-grade default rate stood at 3.7% through this June.
• US defaults fell by 30% to 60 in 2025, and defaulted debt fell 55% to $94.9 billion.
• European defaults fell to 30 in 2025 from 33 in 2024, and no investment-grade European corporate has defaulted since 2009.
• S&P Global data show 372 large US corporations filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of 2026, up slightly from 371 a year earlier.

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• Moody’s US default rate: 5.3% in August.
• Moody’s global default rate: 4.5% at the end of August 2026, up from 4.4% in July, a preliminary reading.
• S&P US forecast: 3.75% by June 2027.
• US corporate bonds outstanding: $12.1 trillion as of 2Q26, up 4.2% year over year.
• Debt of 2024 global defaulters: $227.41 billion.
• CCC/C one-year default rate: 26.12% on average across 1981-2024.

Global Corporate Default Tally in 2026

Figures are compiled from 19 sources: 14 rating agency reports from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Ratings, two SIFMA market datasets, one Federal Reserve report and two First Trust summaries of agency data. Publication dates run from March 2025 to October 2026. Primary data come from rating agencies, a central bank and an industry body. The two First Trust summaries relay figures from Moody’s and S&P Global. Figures are reviewed on a rolling basis and updated when sources publish new editions.

• Defaults increased to five in the week to Oct. 5, 2026, the highest weekly count since July.
• The year-to-date default count stood at 24 at the end of March 2026, slightly below the 26 recorded in 2025 and well below the five-year average of 28.
• Only five defaults were recorded in June 2026, the second-lowest monthly total since May 2022, down from 17 in May.
• The year-to-date total stood at 50 after June 2026, well below 63 for the same period in 2025.
• S&P Global Ratings’ global corporate default count was 11 in August 2026, with Medical Properties Trust, Air Baltic and Hughes Satellite Systems among the defaulters.
• Moody’s counts a separate pool: defaults through June totaled 64, down from 68 a year earlier.

Source: S&P Global Ratings, March to October 2026

Speculative-Grade Default Rates in 2026

• Moody’s preliminary data put its trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate at 4.5% at the end of August 2026, up from 4.4% in July.
• The US speculative-grade default rate was 5.3% in August on Moody’s count.
• Moody’s notes that roughly half of SG issuers are US-based, so US stress moves the global rate.
• S&P measured the US trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate at 3.7% in June 2026.
• Europe’s speculative-grade default rate was 2.6% as of June 2026.
• S&P’s emerging markets study puts the global speculative-grade average at 3.66% for 1997-2025.

Moody’s 4.4% and S&P’s 3.7% June readings come from different agencies and issuer pools, so they should not be compared directly.

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Recent Developments

• Oct. 5, 2026: S&P Global Ratings reported that three defaults were due to distressed exchanges, across different corporate sectors and regions, in its weekly update.
• Sept. 16, 2026: S&P Global Ratings’ global corporate default count was 11 in August 2026, with defaulters based in Germany, Latvia, Luxembourg, the U.K. and the US.
• August 2026: Investment-grade issuers accounted for 42% of all upgrades in August, and net bias improved to -3.4%, its strongest reading since August 2022.
• Aug. 24, 2026: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights expects the European trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 3% by June 2027.
• July 27, 2026: S&P Global Ratings found that nonfinancial investment-grade debt issuance has grown 50.2% globally in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year prior.
• July 22, 2026: Moody’s reported that ten speculative-grade corporate issuers it rates defaulted in June, up from nine in May but slightly less than the five-year monthly average of 11.

Global Corporate Defaults by Year

• Global corporate defaults reached 268 in 2009 and 230 in 2001.
• Defaults totaled 225 in 2020 before falling to 72 in 2021.
• Defaults eased to 145 in 2024 from 153 in 2023.
• Of the 130 defaulters in 2024 that were rated at the start of the year, 97 were rated in the ‘CCC’/’C’ category.

Investment-Grade vs Speculative-Grade Default Rates

• The speculative-grade default rate was 3.94% in 2024, while the investment-grade rate was 0.03%.
• Investment-grade defaults numbered 0 in each of 2020, 2021 and 2022.
• The speculative-grade rate reached 5.54% in 2020 and 9.89% in 2009.
• There have been no investment-grade (rated ‘BBB-‘ or higher) European corporate defaults since 2009.

Corporate Bond Default Statistics by Credit Rating

• AA issuers show a 0.02% average one-year default rate over 1981-2024.
• CCC/C issuers average a 26.12% default rate in the first year.
• B-rated issuers default about 5.2 times as often as BB-rated issuers in year one.
• All rated issuers average 1.50% in the first year.

Cumulative Default Rates Over 5, 10 and 15 Years

• BBB issuers show a 2.86% cumulative default rate over 10 years.
• B-rated issuers reach 22.02% over 10 years, and CCC/C issuers 50.43%.
• Speculative-grade issuers average 19.15% over 10 years, against 1.69% for investment grade.

Source: S&P Global Ratings, 2024 Annual Global Corporate Default Study, Table 24 (March 2025)

Are corporate bonds 100% safe?

No. In S&P’s 1981-2024 data, even AAA issuers show a 0.86% cumulative default rate after 15 years, and BBB issuers reach 2.86% after 10 years. Default risk generally falls as ratings rise, but not at every step. AAA issuers show a zero one-year average yet slightly higher five- and 10-year cumulative rates than AA issuers. Every category is above zero by year five.

Defaulted Corporate Debt by Year

• Defaulted issuers carried $227.41 billion of debt in 2024 and $222.44 billion in 2023.
• The total reached $627.70 billion in 2009, after $429.63 billion in 2008.
• In the US, defaulted debt fell 55% to $94.9 billion in 2025.

By the numbers: S&P Global Ratings data show defaulted issuers carried $353.43 billion of debt in 2020 and $66.28 billion in 2021. Defaulted debt swings far more than the default count from year to year, because a few large capital structures can dominate a single year’s total.

Corporate Default Rate Forecasts for 2026 and 2027

• S&P’s base case calls for a 3.75% default rate through next June, little changed from 3.7% through this June.
• In S&P’s pessimistic scenario, the default rate could rise to 4.5% by June 2027, and in its optimistic scenario the default rate could fall to 2.5% by June 2027.
• S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights expects the global trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to rise slightly to 3.8% by March 2027 from 3.1% in March 2026.
• Moody’s scenarios put the global default rate at 3.9% under its moderately pessimistic scenario and 4.4% in the severely pessimistic scenario by the end of 2026.
• By the end of June 2027, the global default rate may rise as high as 5.9% in Moody’s worst case.

Worth noting: S&P Global Ratings says the growing share and incidence of distressed exchanges have arguably kept the default rate higher than many aggregate indicators suggest. Forecasts built on spreads and macro signals therefore tend to understate defaults while sponsors keep restructuring debt out of court.

Corporate Defaults by Region

• European defaults fell to 30 in 2025, though this tally remained relatively elevated, marking the first time European defaults have reached at least 30 for three consecutive years.
• Europe’s overall default rate fell to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.0% in 2024, and the speculative-grade default rate fell to 4.0% from 4.5%.
• Emerging and frontier markets corporate defaults fell to nine in 2025, for an annual speculative-grade default rate of 1.09% against an average of 3.01%.
• Moody’s data show that of June’s 10 defaults, five occurred in North America, with all of those in the US.
• S&P noted that the US share of defaults reached its highest level since 2020 in August.
• In S&P’s global study, the US led defaults by region with 97 in 2024.

The US count in S&P’s global study and the year-over-year change in its separate US study come from different publications, so the two US figures should not be netted against each other.

Corporate Default Risk by Sector

• The consumer/services sector led US defaults in 2025 with 27, followed by healthcare/chemicals with 15, and together these two sectors represented 58% of US corporate defaults.
• Moody’s counts show healthcare and pharmaceuticals (eight), business services (seven) and high-tech industries (seven) leading defaults in the first half of 2026.
• The consumer/service sector led the default tally for the fourth straight year with 33 defaults in 2024, while the leisure time/media sector had the highest default rate (4.89%).
• Media and entertainment posted the largest rise in the European distress ratio, up 1.9 percentage points to 9.4%.

Distressed Exchanges and Missed Payments

• The number of distressed exchanges rose to its highest level since 2008, accounting for 59.3% of defaults in 2024.
• Moody’s found that distressed exchanges accounted for about half of June’s defaults.
• In August, S&P saw that missed-payment defaults gained ground relative to distressed exchanges, pointing to increasing liquidity pressures among some of the weakest issuers.
• The Federal Reserve reports that the volume-weighted default rate on leveraged loans stayed below its historical median, while defaults including distressed exchanges remained relatively high.

Source: S&P Global Ratings, 2024 Annual Global Corporate Default Study (March 2025)

S&P links part of the trend to ownership: one reason is the desire of financial sponsors to maintain control of their portfolio firms while attempting to reduce debt. Sponsor decisions in the private equity market therefore show up directly in default counts, and many of the same companies also borrow through the private debt market.

What does it mean when a company defaults on a bond?

A bond default means the issuer does not deliver what the bond promised. S&P Global Ratings views an exchange of one or more of an issuer’s financial obligations as tantamount to default if the issuer is distressed and the transaction offers investors materially less than the original promise of the debt.

Bond Spreads and the Distress Ratio

• The distress ratio indicates future defaults with a roughly nine-month lead, and the 4.4% distress ratio in June would approximately correspond to a 2.5% default rate for March 2027.
• In S&P’s US indicator table, the distress ratio rose to 6.0% in Q1 2026 before easing to 4.4% in Q2 2026.
• SG spreads stood at 218.7 basis points in Q2 2026, down from 267.2 basis points in Q1 2026.
• US weakest links numbered 148 in Q2 2026, up from 144 in Q1 2026.
• The Federal Reserve found that market-based forecasts of one-year-ahead default probabilities of nonfinancial firms were little changed and remained at the low end of their historical distributions.

Key finding: S&P Global Ratings notes that spreads have been reliable leading indicators of future defaults, but in the last few years, defaults have remained above what the historical trends would suggest. Tight spreads now say more about investor demand for yield than about how many weak issuers will restructure.

US Corporate Bond Market Size

• SIFMA ranks corporate bonds as the second-largest asset class based on securities outstanding, at $12.1 trillion ($12,131.1 billion), up 1.3% quarter over quarter in 2Q26.
• US corporate bond issuance totaled $2,195.1 billion through September 2026, up 24.5% year over year.
• Trading averaged $66.7 billion a day through September, up 13.4%.
• Bond issuance among the largest investment-grade firms involved in cloud computing neared $100 billion in the first quarter of 2026, per the Federal Reserve.
• The Federal Reserve counts corporate business credit of $14,183 billion, including $8,791 billion of bonds and commercial paper at 2025:Q4.
• Bank lending accounted for $1,905 billion of corporate business credit at 2025:Q4.
• Leveraged loans reached $1,380 billion, growing 12.6%, against 3.2% for bonds and commercial paper.
• Moody’s expects the global loan-only default rate to decline to 2.5% in June 2027, compared with 1.4% for the global bond-only default rate.

The Federal Reserve’s credit table splits corporate borrowing by instrument, which separates bonds from the faster-growing leveraged loan market.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Stability Report (May 2026)

Why it matters: Federal Reserve data show leveraged loans growing 12.6% against 3.2% for bonds and commercial paper, and Moody’s expects the global loan-only default rate to decline to 2.5% in June 2027, compared with 1.4% for the global bond-only default rate. The faster-growing pool is also the one with the higher expected default rate.

How much corporate debt is there in the US?

US companies owe more than the bond market alone shows. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report counts corporate business credit of $14,183 billion at 2025:Q4, while SIFMA puts corporate bonds outstanding at $12.1 trillion in 2Q26.

2026 Corporate Bankruptcy Filings in the US

• S&P Global reported that 372 large US corporations filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of 2026, keeping filings at their highest level since 2010.
• Industrial companies filed the most bankruptcies (50) over the period.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence via First Trust (September 2026)

Court bankruptcy filings and rated-bond defaults measure different events, since a distressed exchange counts as a default without any court case.

Refinancing Needs and the Maturity Wall

• The peak maturity year for speculative-grade nonfinancial corporate debt has been pushed out to 2031 globally, from 2029 in April and 2028 in January.
• Maturities of debt rated ‘B-‘ and lower rise to $268.8 billion in 2028, much of which is concentrated in the US.
• According to S&P Global Ratings’ US default rate forecast, near-term maturing debt due between July 1, 2026, and July 1, 2027, is only $227.1 billion.

Source: S&P Global Ratings, SIFMA, July to October 2026

Heavy issuance pushes the maturity wall out and also feeds investment bank underwriting.

Conclusion

S&P’s tally of 82 defaults year to date against 89 at the same point last year and Moody’s 4.4% trailing 12-month rate at the end of June describe a credit cycle that remains elevated, and Moody’s preliminary August reading edged higher. The composition matters more than the count: distressed exchanges let sponsors cut debt without a court filing, which keeps default tallies high while spreads stay tight.

S&P’s base case holds a 3.75% default rate through next June, with the pessimistic path tied to the Middle East war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasting longer. Energy-driven price pressure, tracked in US inflation statistics, is the variable most likely to move that forecast.