Nasdaq has filed with the SEC to introduce binary yes or no options tied to the Nasdaq 100, marking its formal entry into the fast growing prediction style trading market.
Key Takeaways
- Nasdaq has filed a proposed rule change with the SEC to list binary options on the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq 100 Micro Index.
- The contracts, called Outcome Related Options, would trade between $0.01 and $1.00 based on probability.
- The move reflects rising demand for prediction style markets, where traders bet on specific outcomes.
- Combined monthly volume on Polymarket and Kalshi hit $18.4 billion in February, setting a sixth straight record.
What Happened?
Nasdaq has submitted a proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to launch binary options tied to its flagship Nasdaq 100 Index and its micro counterpart. The contracts would allow traders to place simple yes or no bets on whether a specific market condition is met.
If approved, the products would trade as securities options under SEC oversight, positioning Nasdaq directly within the expanding world of prediction style financial products.
NEW: Nasdaq is making its first real move into prediction markets.
— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) March 2, 2026
The exchange wants to list binary options on the Nasdaq-100 — yes/no contracts priced from $0.01 to $1 that reflect the market’s implied probability of an outcome.
source: Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/DyOONxSjGW
Nasdaq Steps Into Prediction Style Trading
The proposal outlines a new category of contracts known as Outcome Related Options. These instruments would be priced between $0.01 and $1.00, with prices reflecting the market’s assessment of the probability of a given outcome.
Like traditional binary options, there are only two possible results. If the specified condition is met, the contract settles at $1. If not, it expires worthless. This structure mirrors the format used by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where contracts pay out based on real world outcomes.
Nasdaq’s filing marks its first formal step into a segment that blends traditional derivatives with the mechanics of event based trading.
Exchanges Race to Capture Growing Demand
Interest in prediction markets has surged over the past year. According to data from The Block, combined monthly trading volume across Polymarket and Kalshi reached approximately $18.4 billion in February, marking a sixth consecutive monthly record. January had previously set a high of just over $17 billion.
Other major exchanges are also positioning themselves around this trend. Cboe Global Markets has announced plans to expand into prediction style offerings and has reportedly discussed so called all or nothing options tied to financial benchmarks with retail brokerages.
Meanwhile, CME Group is expanding crypto derivatives access as demand grows for around the clock trading products.
Crypto exchanges are also moving quickly. Coinbase recently rolled out prediction markets tied to political, economic, and cultural events. Gemini received approval in December from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a Designated Contract Market, allowing it to offer regulated prediction markets to US customers.
Regulatory Spotlight Intensifies
While many event contracts fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Nasdaq’s proposed binary options would be regulated by the SEC as securities options.
Regulators are paying close attention. Earlier this month, SEC Chair Paul Atkins described prediction markets as a “huge issue,” citing potential overlap between the SEC and CFTC.
Nasdaq had not responded to requests for comment at the time of publication.
CoinLaw’s Takeaway
In my view, this is a clear sign that prediction style trading is no longer a niche corner of crypto platforms. When a major exchange like Nasdaq moves into yes or no contracts on one of the most watched stock indexes in the world, it tells me the demand is real and institutional players are paying attention.
I have found that traders increasingly want simple, direct exposure to specific outcomes rather than complex multi leg strategies. If the SEC approves this proposal, we could see a new wave of probability based trading products hitting mainstream markets. That would blur the line between traditional finance and event driven speculation even further.
