Robinhood is making a major move into prediction markets through a new futures and derivatives exchange set to go live in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Robinhood is launching a new derivatives exchange through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group.
- The new platform will acquire MIAXdx to become a regulated futures and clearinghouse operation.
- Prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line, with over 9 billion contracts traded.
- The initiative signals Robinhood’s long-term investment in developing innovative financial products tied to real-world events.
What Happened?
Robinhood has announced a bold expansion into the futures and prediction markets space. In a new joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, the company will launch a licensed futures and derivatives exchange that is expected to start operations in 2026. The move comes amid growing interest in prediction contracts tied to politics, sports, and macroeconomic events.
Robinhood is introducing a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, deepening our investment in Prediction Markets and better positioning us to deliver innovative products to our customers.
— Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) November 25, 2025
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Robinhood’s Big Bet on Prediction Markets
Robinhood Markets Inc. will control the joint venture and oversee the creation of a new exchange and clearinghouse. This initiative will include the acquisition of MIAXdx from Miami International Holdings. MIAXdx is a designated contract market and registered derivatives clearing organization under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As part of the deal, MIAX will retain a 10 percent equity stake in the new platform.
Key elements of the plan include:
- Susquehanna International Group will act as the day-one liquidity provider.
- The platform will cater to both Robinhood Derivatives and third-party futures brokers.
- The exchange will focus on prediction contracts linked to real-world outcomes, such as elections and sporting events.
Robinhood emphasized that this move was driven by customer interest and the growth of its prediction markets. JB Mackenzie, Vice President and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, stated:
Growth Backed by Data
Since Robinhood entered the prediction market space, the response has been significant:
- Over 1 million users have participated in prediction markets on the platform.
- More than 9 billion contracts have been traded since the product line launched.
- These markets now represent Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue.
Earlier this year, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to introduce prediction markets into its app. Topics have included U.S. politics, inflation metrics, and sports. In August, the platform rolled out football-related prediction contracts for NFL and NCAA games.
Market Trends and Competitive Landscape
Prediction markets are increasingly seen as more than just event-driven betting. Analysts from Bernstein noted that these platforms are evolving into broad-based information trading venues, with rising volumes and mainstream appeal.
In the current landscape:
- Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated platform, has been consistently outpacing competitor Polymarket in trading volume.
- In October alone, Kalshi handled $4.4 billion in volume versus $3.02 billion on Polymarket.
- Other major players like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital have reportedly expressed interest in entering or supporting this market space, hinting at broader institutional interest.
CoinLaw’s Takeaway
I think Robinhood’s move is a smart and timely one. Prediction markets have quickly gone from niche curiosity to mainstream finance tool. In my experience, when platforms give users more ways to interact with real-world events through regulated, transparent systems, it drives engagement and trust. Robinhood isn’t just joining the trend, it’s aiming to lead it. With a regulated exchange, strong liquidity partners, and a proven customer base, this could reshape how everyday investors bet on future events.
