Gemini has officially entered the U.S. prediction market space, receiving long-awaited regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Key Takeaways
- Gemini Titan, an affiliate of Gemini Space Station Inc., has been granted a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license by the CFTC, allowing it to operate regulated prediction markets in the U.S.
- The approval follows a five-year licensing process that began in March 2020.
- Gemini plans to offer event contracts on binary outcomes and later expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetuals, pending further approval.
- The move reflects a shift in CFTC leadership under Acting Chair Caroline Pham, who has adopted a pro-innovation stance on prediction markets.
What Happened?
Gemini Titan, a subsidiary of Gemini Space Station Inc., has secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a Designated Contract Market. This gives Gemini the green light to offer regulated prediction markets for U.S. users, placing it among a small but growing group of licensed platforms including Kalshi and the recently reapproved Polymarket.
The approval marks the end of a five-year application process, which began in March 2020, and opens the door for Gemini to compete in a fast-growing sector fueled by rising interest in event-driven betting markets.
We’ve just received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the @CFTC which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.
— Gemini (@Gemini) December 10, 2025
A New Chapter for Gemini
According to a statement from CEO Tyler Winklevoss, the approval “marks the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini.” He credited President Donald Trump for reversing what he called the “Biden Administration’s War on Crypto,” and praised Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham for supporting crypto-friendly regulation.
“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” said President Cameron Winklevoss. He emphasized Pham’s leadership as a turning point for U.S. innovation in financial markets.
With the DCM license, Gemini will initially roll out binary event contracts, allowing users to bet on simple yes-or-no questions. Sample markets may include predictions like whether Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 by year-end or if X (formerly Twitter) will pay a $140 million EU fine by 2026.
Product Access and Market Strategy
Gemini customers will be able to trade event contracts using USD balances on the platform’s web interface. Mobile trading access via the Gemini app is expected to launch soon.
In the future, Gemini plans to expand Titan’s offering to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts, products that are widely available in Asian markets but remain largely unavailable to U.S. traders due to regulatory hurdles.
The company says the prediction market launch is part of its broader effort to become a “one-stop financial super app.” It argues that event contracts can “leverage the wisdom of the crowd” to improve forecasting, helping both retail and institutional market participants prepare for complex scenarios.
Changing Regulatory Winds
The CFTC has historically been cautious about prediction markets. It previously pushed Polymarket offshore in 2022 and tightly restricted contract offerings on Kalshi. However, both firms have now returned or expanded under the current administration.
On the same day as the Gemini announcement, Acting Chair Pham introduced the CFTC CEO Innovation Council, which includes executives from Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket, CME Group, and Nasdaq. This signals a more collaborative and innovation-friendly environment between regulators and market leaders.
Gemini’s license is not only a business milestone but also a signal that the U.S. may be warming to new financial models built around crowd sentiment and event prediction.
CoinLaw’s Takeaway
I think this is a major moment for U.S. crypto regulation. In my experience, a five-year wait for any license in finance is a test of endurance, and Gemini passed it. What makes this move especially exciting is that Gemini isn’t just entering the prediction market space. They’re laying the groundwork for regulated crypto derivatives in the U.S., something retail users have been locked out of for too long. With the CFTC signaling more openness, we might finally see the U.S. catch up to Asia on advanced trading tools. And for traders, more choice and more transparency is always a win.
