Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch election linked exchange traded funds that behave like prediction markets for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race.
Key Takeaways
- Bitwise and GraniteShares filed with the SEC for six election outcome ETFs tied to event contracts.
- The lineup covers the 2028 presidential election plus 2026 House and Senate control, with separate funds for each party outcome.
- The ETFs aim to hold mostly binary event contracts that can drop to near zero if the chosen outcome fails.
- The filings follow an earlier push from Roundhill, showing a growing race to bring prediction market exposure into ETFs.
What Happened?
On Tuesday, Bitwise and GraniteShares submitted SEC filings for a set of funds designed to track political outcomes through event contracts. The products are structured so investors pick a side, with one fund tied to Democrats winning and another tied to Republicans winning for each election outcome.
🚨NEW: @BitwiseInvest joins @Roundhill in filing for prediction market ETFs.
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) February 17, 2026
The proposed funds would track contracts tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election and upcoming House and Senate midterms.
“PredictionShares” will serve as a new Bitwise platform focused on providing… https://t.co/vh3ki5b0PH
Bitwise and GraniteShares Enter the Prediction ETF Race
Bitwise filed a prospectus for a series branded PredictionShares, with six prediction market style ETFs intended to list on NYSE Arca. GraniteShares also filed for six similar funds with a matching structure.
The funds target three major outcomes, each split into a Democrat fund and a Republican fund:
- 2028 US presidential election
- 2026 Senate control
- 2026 House control
Each fund is designed to deliver capital appreciation if its specified outcome happens, and to lose most of its value if it does not. Bitwise’s filing spells this out clearly in plain language.
The prospectus read:
How These ETFs Work?
The core mechanic is simple but risky. Each ETF plans to invest at least 80% of its net assets in binary event contracts, which are political prediction market derivatives traded on CFTC regulated exchanges. These contracts settle at $1 if the referenced outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
That structure means the share price becomes a market based signal. As polls shift, headlines break, and sentiment changes, the implied probability can move, which in turn can move the fund price between $0 and $1.
In practice, the setup is like wrapping an election bet inside an ETF wrapper, with separate products for each side of each race. Investors are not buying a diversified basket of companies. They are buying exposure to a single binary outcome.
A Crowded Field Is Forming
These filings are not arriving in a vacuum. Roundhill previously filed for a similar set of six prediction market style ETFs tied to the same election outcomes. That earlier move helped set the stage for more issuers to try the format.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart framed the momentum as part of a broader product wave. “The financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues,” commented Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
He also pointed to the likelihood that more filings are coming, noting that this trend has already shown repeat attempts across the industry.
Crypto Prediction Markets Add Extra Heat
One reason this theme is getting louder is the growth of crypto prediction markets and election betting interest. The broader space has been attracting attention from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, while firms and crypto exchanges explore ways to participate as regulation becomes clearer.
One report in the provided coverage described a $63 billion market sector drawing more investor interest, and it also noted examples of crypto companies exploring prediction products. The same coverage referenced crypto exchange moves, including Gemini receiving a CFTC license for its own platform and Coinbase announcing plans for a betting markets platform.
CoinLaw’s Takeaway
I see these filings as a sign that Wall Street wants to package almost anything into an ETF, even a single political outcome. In my experience, products like this can look simple, but the risk is brutally direct. If you pick the wrong side, you are not down a little, you can be down almost everything. I found the structure fascinating because it turns election probability into a tradeable ticker, but it also raises a basic question for everyday investors: do you want your portfolio to swing with campaign headlines and breaking political news? For most people, this feels more like a high risk tactical bet than a long term investment tool.
