Portugal has ordered crypto-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations in the country, citing illegal gambling activity following a dramatic spike in election-related betting.
Key Takeaways
- Portugal’s gambling regulator has banned Polymarket for offering unauthorized betting services tied to political events.
- Over 100 million euros in bets were reportedly placed on Polymarket during Portugal’s recent presidential election.
- Regulators warn the platform’s activity is illegal and may rely on insider or non-public information.
- Polymarket faces growing regulatory scrutiny in other countries, including Hungary, the United States, France, and Germany.
What Happened?
Portugal’s Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has taken decisive action against Polymarket after detecting a surge in bets on the country’s presidential election. The platform was given 48 hours to shut down all operations within Portugal. As of now, it remains accessible, prompting regulators to move toward ISP-level blocking.
NEWS: 🇵🇹 Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down within 48 hours, citing the illegality of betting on political events. pic.twitter.com/aQXdSf35W8
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) January 20, 2026
Portugal Moves to Block Polymarket
The regulator found Polymarket in violation of Portugal’s gambling laws, which prohibit betting on political or real-world events. According to SRIJ, Polymarket does not hold a license to operate in the country, rendering its services illegal under the national gambling framework established in 2015.
- The recent activity on Polymarket was triggered by Portugal’s January 18 presidential election.
- Rádio Renascença reported that over 103 million euros (approximately $120 million) were bet on the outcome.
- Authorities suspect bets may have been made based on leaked exit polls or privileged information not available to the public.
- The regulator emphasized that unlicensed platforms offer no protections, and user funds could be at risk once access is blocked.
Part of a Larger Global Backlash
Portugal’s move reflects a broader wave of enforcement actions against prediction markets operating outside regulatory frameworks.
- On the same day, Hungary’s gambling authority also banned Polymarket, citing similar illegal gambling concerns.
- In the United States, Tennessee and Nevada have issued cease-and-desist orders, with Nevada launching a civil enforcement case demanding Polymarket halt unlicensed wagering.
- The platform is restricted in over 30 jurisdictions, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and Ukraine.
Regulators argue that platforms like Polymarket cross the line into illegal gambling, despite the company’s assertion that it offers a “forecasting tool” or “events contracts.” These markets have seen explosive growth, with November 2025 data showing combined monthly volumes of $13.5 billion and over 43 million transactions among top players.
Prediction Markets Under Pressure
Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, enables users to speculate on real-world outcomes using cryptocurrency, often settling in stablecoins. Its political markets have repeatedly drawn scrutiny worldwide.
While some jurisdictions allow limited prediction markets, Portugal’s 2015 online gambling law restricts betting to sports, casino games, and horse racing only. This leaves no legal room for political prediction markets like those offered by Polymarket.
Other competitors such as Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless are still accessible in Portugal, though they could soon face similar challenges.
CoinLaw’s Takeaway
I think this move by Portugal is a wake-up call for prediction markets. In my experience, platforms like Polymarket walk a fine line between innovative finance and unregulated gambling. The fact that over 100 million euros were bet just before election results raises serious red flags. It’s one thing to speculate on public events, but when regulators believe bets are being placed on leaked or inside information, it undermines both market integrity and public trust. If prediction markets want to be taken seriously, they need to work within legal frameworks and offer better protections for users.
