MicroStrategy’s bold strategy of turning itself into a Bitcoin investment vehicle could backfire as JPMorgan warns the firm risks being removed from major equity indices like MSCI USA.
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan warns MicroStrategy could be delisted from MSCI indices due to its high exposure to Bitcoin, risking up to $11.6 billion in outflows if other indices follow.
- MicroStrategy’s market-implied net asset value (mNAV) premium has collapsed, showing the stock is nearly trading at the value of its Bitcoin holdings alone.
- The company has added over 9,000 BTC this month but at a slower pace than previous years, amid shrinking cash reserves and rising concern about financing options.
- CEO Michael Saylor remains confident, reinforcing his “HODL” stance and denying any plans to liquidate Bitcoin, despite market turmoil.
What Happened?
MicroStrategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin, is under pressure as MSCI considers excluding companies whose digital assets exceed 50 percent of their total assets. JPMorgan issued a stark warning that such a move could trigger billions in forced outflows from passive index funds. MicroStrategy stock has dropped sharply, falling over 40 percent in the last month, and is now trading at levels last seen more than a year ago.
The Delisting Threat Looms
MSCI, one of the world’s key index providers, is currently reviewing whether to exclude companies like MicroStrategy whose balance sheets are dominated by digital assets. A decision is expected by January 15, 2026. According to JPMorgan, if MSCI removes MicroStrategy, the firm could face $2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI-tracking funds alone and potentially up to $11.6 billion if other index providers such as Nasdaq and Russell follow suit.
This risk has sent MicroStrategy’s stock into a tailspin, with the price diving more than 68 percent below its all-time high. The company’s market-implied net asset value (mNAV), which reflects the market value of Bitcoin relative to its share price, has now collapsed to nearly 1x, showing little to no premium beyond its crypto holdings.
Slowing Bitcoin Purchases and Shrinking Premium
Since its strategic pivot in 2020, MicroStrategy has operated a flywheel model: raise capital via debt or stock, buy Bitcoin, benefit from price increases, and repeat. But the recent downturn has cracked that model. As of November 2025, MicroStrategy holds 649,870 BTC at an average price of $74,433, and any further dip in Bitcoin could push the company’s holdings into negative territory.
Adding to investor concern, the company’s Bitcoin purchases have slowed significantly. In November alone, MicroStrategy added 9,062 BTC, compared to over 79,000 BTC during the same period last year. Their Q3 report showed just $54.3 million in cash and equivalents, prompting them to raise $710 million via a euro-denominated perpetual preferred stock.
Executive Moves Stir Market Sentiment
Executive Vice President Shao Weiming is set to leave the company by December 31, 2025, and has sold nearly $19.7 million in stock since September. Though these were under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, the timing alongside mounting financial pressure has drawn attention.
Nonetheless, institutions such as the Arizona and Florida pension plans, Renaissance Technologies, and the Swiss National Bank continue to hold MSTR shares, indicating some investor confidence remains.
Community Stands Behind Saylor
Michael Saylor has continued to stand firm on his Bitcoin commitment, frequently reaffirming that MicroStrategy will not sell its Bitcoin unless it drops below $10,000. He remains a vocal advocate on platforms like X, often repeating messages such as “Never ₿ack Down.”
Response to MSCI Index Matter
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 21, 2025
Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company. We’re a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.
This year alone, we’ve completed…
Prominent crypto analysts like Willy Woo and Ki Young Ju argue that fears of forced liquidation are overblown. Most of MicroStrategy’s debt is in convertible notes, allowing flexible repayment through cash or stock. Analysts stress that even in worst-case scenarios, the company has options like refinancing or securing loans against its BTC holdings.
CoinLaw’s Takeaway
In my experience watching markets like this, there’s rarely been a corporate experiment as bold as MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-first strategy. And now, the cracks are showing. But what strikes me most is how this is more than just about one company. This is a critical test for the entire intersection of corporate finance and crypto. If MSCI moves forward with its exclusion, it won’t just shake MSTR shareholders, it will reshape how traditional finance deals with crypto exposure at large. Still, I found Saylor’s conviction impressive. Whether you see it as visionary or risky, there’s no denying this moment marks a turning point for corporate Bitcoin adoption.
